“IMD’s ERF suggests that monsoon will arrive on time over Kerala on June 1. This is an early indication,” Earth Sciences Ministry Secretary M Rajivan tweeted on Thursday.
IMD releases ERF every Thursday, weather forecasts for next four weeks on India
The Second Phase of IMD will release monsoon long range forecast (LRF) on May 15. By then, the assessors will have more confidence to share the exact date of monsoon over the Andaman Sea and its progress to the mainland India.
In the first phase of the LRF released last month, the Met Office estimated that the normal to normal rainfall was higher from June to September this year.
The neutral phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) throughout the four-month season will work favourably and bring good rainfall activity across the country, the assessors said. The ENSO is one of the many key factors that determine rainfall performance during the crucial Indian summer monsoon.